More recently, discussion surrounding the scarcity of fibre supply has become more muted. And while the U.S. housing picture continues to look positive, the lumber market collapse this spring serves to remind it’s a global play now – as compared with years ago when it seemed all the analysis was predicated primarily on the U.S. housing market. When prices climb, lumber as a commodity finds extra supply available: mills reopen,  add shifts, build more mills, areas that were too remote to haul timber from become more economical etc etc.  .. And that’s just here in B.C.!

Still, the bullish headlines keep coming. For example, The Globe and Mail declares the lumber super cycle is now imminent (is it fair to characterize “by the end of 2014″ imminent?). More than one forestry stock analyst has told us “If this is a baseball game, we’re in the third inning.” Traders certainly hope this is a game where the realities match the hype.

“Clean-up Blogger” – Little League at Trafalgar Park, Vancouver (197_?)

Reblogged from Eye on Housing:

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index passed the tipping point of 50 in June to top out at 52, the highest level since April 2006 and the largest monthly increase since 2002. The renewed confidence was spread across all three components, with the expectation for the next 6 months rising to 61, the highest in seven years.

The index compares the share of builders who believe the market is better with those who believe it is poor.

Read more… 200 more words

Click image to enlarge. Photo Credit: Michael Nichols (National Geographic Stock)

“The redwoods, once seen, leave a mark or create a vision that stays with you always. No one has ever successfully painted or photographed a redwood tree. The feeling they produce is not transferable. From them comes silence and awe. It’s not only their unbelievable stature, nor the color which seems to shift and vary under your eyes, no, they are not like any trees we know, they are ambassadors from another time.”
- John Steinbeck, Travels with Charlie: In Search of America

Photographer Michael “Nick” Nichols describes how his team of researchers and technicians made a unique composite image of an entire redwood tree here. Lots of interesting redwood facts available at National Geographic here.

In Canadian Home Buyers in America – from Saviours to Carpetbaggers? Erica Alini points to a clause that allows those 55+ who own or rent a home in the United States to stay there for up to eight months per year without a visa, rather than six, before losing non-resident status for tax purposes. And in what Alini describes as “a welcome treat for well-to-do Canuck pensioners”, the bill also introduces a special retiree visa for seniors who can make a cash purchase of a U.S. home worth US$500,000 or more. While the author acknowledges that investors – domestic and foreign – are a big reason why home prices rebounded in the first place, she concludes that if the grumblings about foreign buyers increase, these provisions could start to look like “a low hanging fruit fix”.

Tom Davis – June ’12

The countdown is on for the 33rd Annual BCWLA Lumberman of the Year Roast at the Terminal City Club in Vancouver. The recipient of the 2013 B.C. Wholesale Lumberman of the Year Award is Tom Davis, lumber buyer extraordinaire at Taiga Building Products Ltd. Having had the good fortune of working with Tom from 1992 to 2010, Harderblog recently had a chance to sit down with Thursday’s guest of honour:

1) How did you get into the business, Tom?
In the summer of 1969, I was working as a car hop at the White Spot here in Vancouver at Burrard and Robson, and had applied at BCIT. The day my letter of acceptance arrived from BCIT, my mother phoned me at the White Spot with the news. That lunch hour, I served a group of people from Balfour Guthrie which included Vice President Peter Hall. When he was conducting interviews at BCIT two years later, he remembered me. I was not hired for the position because I had no experience (they hired Bill Braaten instead), but he liked my enthusiasm; if I was willing to go to Prince George and work in their mill they would hire me as a trainee. I worked in the planer, under the sawmill on cleanup, ran lines in the bush, burned slash, did local sales, and any other jobs when they needed someone. I had a brief opportunity to work with Reno Gobbi, a well-known lumber salesman. When Morey Mackay went to Widman Industries, I was brought back to Vancouver. Forty-two years later…

2) Any mentors?
Doug Butterworth – Taiga
George Cruikshank – Pacific Overland Timber
John Whitmer – Netherlands Overseas Mills.

3) Others who had a positive influence on your career?
Pete Alexander, Dalton Lewis, Ron Fourchuk, Steve Granger, Cavin Bachert, Jim Honeysett, Bob Leffler, Marcel Picard, Alex Robertson, Jim Simmons, Steve Parkinson, Charlie Loo.

4) Which mills have you been talking to the longest? Favorite mill salespeople?
Mills: Dunkley, Carrier, Vanderwell, Buchanan, Sinclar
People: Dave Dunkley, John Thorlakson, Judi Barnes, Reg Foot, Ron Gettling, Blain Hicks, to name a few..

5) Does one particular lumber purchase stand out over the years?
Last year we had 40 truckloads 2×4-8’ Sinclar Premium Studs on order when I learned of the tragedy at Lakeland Mills on my drive to work. We cancelled the order.

6) What is your fondest memory at Taiga?
The period from 1987 to 2000.. when the company was in wholesale and distribution. We had a lot of fun everyday, even when the market stunk.

7) What’s the biggest change you’ve seen in the industry?
From telex to email and smart phone.

8) Biggest challenges?
One Spotted Owl, countervailing duties, the subprime mortgage crisis, surviving six market recessions, cheap salesmen.

9) Your most oft-used expressions on the trading floor?
-          ”Turn out the lights, the party’s over”
–          ”It’s only money and it’s not mine”
–          ”Drink Drano”
–          ”Shoot the puck centre ice coureur de bois”
–          ”You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink”
–          ”That dog don’t hunt”
–          ”Go fish”
–          ”Rig for dive”
–          ”He doesn’t know whether to take a sh-t or wind his watch”
–          ”Time wounds all heals” (Granger)
–          ”Time to fish or cut bait”

10) Lumberman of the Year is quite the honour, congratulations. Any plans to retire?
No – rewire.

In an interview yesterday, Brian Simpson, director of the B.C. Wildfire Management Branch, said “If you look at things like temperature, drought conditions, wind conditions, we’re finding now there are periods during our fire seasons that are much higher-risk than we have historically experienced. We’re getting to these much higher intensity fires much more quickly than in the past. We need to be prepared much earlier. If you go back 10 years, our crew organization, preseason preparation, never really got cranked up until the middle of April. We are doing that now at the beginning of March” (Source). The current fire situation across the province is available at at the Wildfire Management Branch website.

We know that seasonally adjusted annual U.S. housing starts were 853,000 in April, down from 1.02 million (-16.5%) in March (Source). While permits in April surged 14.3% to a five-year high (1.02 million annualized), May brought record rainfall across much of the Midwest. What’s the over/under on May housing starts data to be announced June 17th?